That was Milwaukees focus this offseason, trading for Hunter Renfroe and signing Andrew McCutchen to supplement the lineup. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors Theyre bound to be better than last year, if only because it would take a disaster of a season to repeat their 2021 failures. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, If those additions can elevate the production of their pitching staff, and Trout, Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon can stay healthy, the Angels could have a shot at toppling the Astros in the AL West. Just get into the playoffs so I can wear my playoff poncho and swag chain!!! I do think they ought to be in the market for a first base upgrade, keeping Jake Cronenworth at second and allowing Ha-Seong Kims eventual role be determined by what the Friars do with Tatis. The projections haven't figured out how to handle the Rays' brand of excessively deep roster construction. The Guardians have a brand-new identity and just locked up the face of their franchise, Jos Ramrez, to a huge extension. A man is dead after an overnight shooting in Stockton, marking the city's second homicide of the year. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as an initial starting point. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has OAA/RAA from Statcast available on our leaderboards, Ive chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. Entrance fee: 25 Lei. Instead, they tore everything down to the studs. It wasn't even some fluke of shift-related positioning; only four of those 10 bunts came with three. Giants only at 81 wins? The Jays get the top place in the table with the highest divisional odds. For these Opening Day power rankings, Ive used each teams projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections. Both systems love the Mets, as most models do because, honestly, they look great on paper. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. The Rays will be the Rays, and theyll probably add two wins from random pitchers they pick up from indie leagues, but thats a bit out of ZiPS purview. A community dedicated to discussing the San Diego Padres. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. In the. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. The ATC Projections have been available on the pages of FanGraphs since 2017. But many of the players who fell flat on their face in 2022 . Lynn will be back soon enough, but his injury exposes how thin Chicagos rotation is, especially if another injury strikes. It feels a little weird to be optimistic about the Mets after the season they just had (or perhaps because the Mets are one of the worlds most powerful pessimism-inducing entities). Create an account to follow your favorite communities and start taking part in conversations. Note that this is NOT the actual 2022-2023 college basketball AP Poll - it's our prediction and projection of what it might be before it's released. That is the case here, as the MAE of 8.3 wins is above the ZiPS historical average of 7.5 (not including 2020). But if they did, the Pirates clearly didnt get the memo after they sent Oneil Cruz to Triple-A to start the season despite an encouraging, and at times electrifying, spring. We've graded all 32 teams -- including one A+ and two F's -- and announced the winners of our own batch of awards . Lance Lynns knee injury isnt as serious as Garrett Crochets Tommy John surgery, but losing the former means Chicago will have to turn to either Vince Velasquez or Reynaldo Lpez until Johnny Cueto is ready to go. If I were a Rockies fan, Id have voted to legalize psychedelic mushrooms, too. Indeed, according to FantasyPros, the ATC projections have been the most accurate baseball projections over the past three seasons. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Spring time in baseball is a wonderful, wonderful thing. This would the same mistake that the Orioles made some years ago with Manny Machado and J.J. Hardy; for a handful of runs, the team would needlessly be lowering the ceiling on a franchise player. Shane Bazs elbow injury was a particularly unwelcome bit of news. Theyll get him and James Paxton back from injury sometime this summer, but until then, theyll have to hope that Michael Wacha and Rich Hill can hold up the back end of the rotation. Even though the projections dont see it, is there any doubt that their pitching staff will be one of the best run prevention units in all of baseball? Please rate & review the show in iTunes letting us know what you think! The team had five starters with above-average ERA+ numbers, and the bullpen was, well, average -- which for the Angels counts as improvement. Probably not. Read the rest of this entry . and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. After all, they didnt even win their own division last year after taking the NL West eight years in a row. Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Rutschman is a complete, franchise-altering prospect, and one of the most exciting young players in the entire sport. Gambling problem? Even being average for 2 months wouldve kept us in it. And the pitching still goes pretty deep so its really hard to imagine that they are anywhere near the Royals next year, even in this state. ZiPS was talking about 1980s minor league outfielder Ted Williams. Sotos plate discipline is other-worldly. On paper, the White Sox are good enough to be in the second tier, but some spring injury issues have knocked them down a peg. Signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien is a great place to begin, though. The Yankees may not bring Aaron Judge back, but it would be absolutely shocking if they didnt do something to replace the wins they would lose with his departure. Number in parentheses is where each team finished in last week's rankings. As it is, theyll likely have to get excited in late May when Cruz has all of a sudden taken a big step forward defensively. The Bills are a 4.5-point favorite in the game. Braves Hall of Fame profile: Bronson Arroyo. The Rays are another possible answer, though. He's a switch-hitter with a hit/power combination that would probably make him an All-Star anywhere on the diamond, while also being a plus defender at the most demanding . The Padres would love to put the summer of 2021 behind them, but they just cant escape the bad vibes that saw them win just 18 games during the last two months of the season. An 85% chance to make the playoffs and a 9% chance to win the World Series at this point is high praise. They play half their games in Coors Field and Coors Field is weird, it makes sense to get hitters and pitchers that are adapted to the situation there (just as it makes sense for the Yankees to sign guys who take advantage of the short porch in right, etc.). All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th percentile projections for each player. This may look depressing, but it also reflects the fact that everyone in the division is getting a tougher schedule in 2023. With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. Posey retired, Kevin Gausman left to the Blue Jays, and Kris Bryant is a free agent and likely not going back to the Giants. 34 on our Top 100) and Mickey Moniak have played their way onto the Opening Day roster and should provide some youthful excitement for a team filled with veterans. He was the biggest addition to their club, but they also traded for Sonny Gray, Gary Snchez, and Gio Urshela, and made a last minute move for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagn. Their problem is that none of Kansas Citys young pitchers have stepped up to contribute in a big way yet. None of Starling Marte, Mark Canha, or Eduardo Escobar are superstars though Marte comes close at times but signing that trio really improved how the lineup looks going into 2022. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. The premium ad-free membership. ZiPS misses for teams from year to year are uncorrelated with an r^2 of one years miss to the next of 0.000575. If you think that certain franchises have a history of predictive over- or underperformance, youd have thought wrong, and Id bet its the same for other projection systems. No team was luckier than the Mariners last year. Wander Francos very quickly become a star, and Brandon Lowe is my pick for the most underrated second baseman in the game. Now, I did say there was one major exception, and thats in-season roster changes. Im always tinkering with methodology, but most of the low-hanging fruit of predicting how teams do have already been harvested. by Handedness, ATC 2022 Projected Standings and Playoff Odds, the most accurate baseball projections over the past three seasons, A Conversation With Philadelphia Phillies Southpaw Bailey Falter (Who Is Unique), The Hopefully-Not-Horrifyingly-Inaccurate 2022 ZiPS Projections: American League. The team has a credible backup at most positions and even some upper minors depth (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and, if you believe Steamer rather than ZiPS, Khalil Lee) they can use if the need arises. Cleveland is fairly unscathed, with the drop-off in wins reflecting a drop-off in the overall projections for the roster. With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. Every spot of the lineup is projected to be worth at least two WAR, even the shortstop crater that Jeremy Pea will seek to fill. 25. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Many of Chicagos projections are notably south of where they were in 2022, and there are still at least two fairly serious holes in the starting lineup that the team better be more serious about filling this year. As for Baseball Prospectus, theyr projection model is called PECOTA which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, as Im sure you knew. So under the current format, they make it in as the first wildcard and have to face * checks notes * Jacob DeGrom or Corbin Burnes in a 1 game playoff. It wouldnt be surprising to see the mean absolute error for an exercise like this, I want to use the simplest tool that gets the point across creep up over time. With a strong rotation led by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, it finally seems like Philadelphia has assembled the talent to break their 10-year playoff drought. That doesn't leave much time to handicap 2022 MLB win totals. It isnt difficult to understand why the Mets locked up Edwin Daz so quickly. (You can learn more about the FanGraphs playoff odds here.). These 2023 projections are guaranteed to be awful, wrong in many ways ranging from tragic to comic. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. You could make an argument for any of these four teams to sit atop these rankings, though, and thats why theyre presented in tiers rather than a straight numerical order. Projected amid the pack this offseason, the Twins have likely shoved their way out of the scrum by adding Correa and Sonny Gray. At least its steamed crab season! Like the Rays, the projection systems have no idea what to do with the Giants. Well start with the AL East: You shouldnt be surprised to see the Yankees crash back to earth here, based on the simple fact that the dude worth 11.4 WAR for them this past season hint, its not Tim Locastro is currently unsigned. Entering the 2022 NFL season, he is 427-344 all-time on NFL sides (plus $3,764 for $100 players), including 394-330 against the spread. Theyll get a full season of Wander Franco and just handed the keys to another one of their top prospects in Josh Lowe after trading Austin Meadows this week. by Retrosheet. The talent was evident, but ownership was clearly reluctant to spend any additional money or prospect capital to supplement the core again. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion the computational algorithms, that is (no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond). If that number is real they arent doing any spending of significance either. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The White Sox should still be more comfortable than they were before the Twins collapsed last season, as Minnesota hasnt completely solved its rotation woes. The As have made a lot of improbable runs, but if they cause pain to the Astros and Mariners this year, it might be their most impressive surprise yet. Not giving Witt every opportunity to be a foundational talent at shortstop so that the Royals can be a .480 team instead of a .478 one doesnt feel like it has the same upside. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Their entire system is proprietary to their site but as they describe it, its a system that takes a players past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season. Of course, thats what every projection model attempts to do but all in different ways. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. yet another projection system that seems to be higher on the phillies than the commentariat. by Retrosheet. Of note is that higher-percentile projections already have more playing time than lower-percentile projections before this step. The Mets might have snuck into the bottom of the second tier if Jacob deGrom hadnt gotten hurt this spring, sidelining him for the first half of the season. Yup! by Handedness, The Absurdly Preliminary 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings, Despite Non-Tender and Big Struggles, Theres Hope for a Bellinger Revival, Angels Snare Hunter Renfroe, Brewers Fill Up on Pitchers. "@HaloDom47 Whatever it projected was thrown out of whack because of Rendons bitch ass and a lot of the injuries that happened to other players most notably Trout. ZiPS projects the Rockies to be better than only the Nationals, but I expect the Nats have a better idea of exactly where their team is than the Rockies do. Yesterday, we looked at the National League; today, we check out the Junior Circuit. Baltimore had the excuse of being a good team in a tough division, in which absolutely maximizing wins had a great deal of value. If they can find a few midseason upgrades for their pitching staff, or if Paddack blossoms in his new home, they could make the White Sox sweat down the stretch. Its not just their new additions either. The Royals and Tigers have a lot of fairly serious problems, so I doubt anyone is shocked to see them at the bottom here, though ZiPS does think KC can cobble together a halfway decent offense if they can resist doing the odd things they seemingly like to do (Ryan OHearn has the 38th-best projected WAR for a position player in their organization). by Retrosheet. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. The Tigers were one of the better teams in the American League during the second half of 2021 as they started to break out of their rebuilding cycle. Lets start with how teams performed versus their projections: Teams have gotten a bit more polarized in how theyre run in-season. Those additions might not have been as flashy as adding Carlos Correa or trading for Olson as some Yankees fans dreamed about, but it does give them a solid infield that should be vastly improved defensively. They swung a major trade with the Twins to get Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa and also re-signed Anthony Rizzo. Adley Rutschman should make his debut as soon as he returns from his spring arm injury, and its possible Grayson Rodriguez could follow soon after. tbh I wouldn't give these projections any credit until the offseason finishes. And then theres the Orioles. Of the 10 bases-empty bunts that he attempted in 2022, eight went towards first base. That doesnt mean we should bank on it; Oakland has lost a lot of people who are really good at playing baseball. Check out these NFL playoffs picks and predictions for the game, which can be seen at 1 p.m. MST on CBS and Paramount+. Those three should give a significant boost to an offense thats floundered since the core of the 2015 championship team was broken up. Currently viewing seasons between 2022 and 2022 We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The Brewers strength is unquestioned, with the best projected starting rotation in the National League. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. As for Washington, lets just say that their second-best projected offensive player was someone who I wasnt completely sure I had heard of before. bigbicepturner Wil Myers 1 yr. ago Fool me twice Can't fool me again edit: damnit, I screwed it up. Depth Charts: FanGraphs Depth Chart projections are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by our staff. Hes about half of their payroll now. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Welcome to our NHL projections and probabilities page where you will find each team's projected point total, its probability of . But it would be a lot easier to do if they could bring back Freddie Freeman. The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. But the lineup imploded. Depth Charts: FanGraphs Depth Chart projections are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by our staff. OK, not really. Thats an incredible run of success, and theyre not letting up anytime soon. Five-win projections from a first baseman are kind of rare in ZiPS I started building WAR projections into ZiPS in 2014, and this will be only the sixth time its happened but Matt Olson is at the likely height of his powers. As you can see, FanGraphs is pretty high on the 2022 team. They use those projections to calculate how many runs a given team will score and allow over a full season, use that to come up with an expected winning percentage for each team, and then uses that winning percentage and run a Monte Carlo simulation for a full 162 games. 60% bachata, 20% kizomba, and 20% salsa. Also gotta remember that the rest of the Central teams (especially Twins) have payroll space and prospect capital to improve if they want to, and the Sox dont. 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